The market is expecting large declines in today's PPI report. The consensus is for
today's Oct final-demand PPI to ease to a new 2-3/4 year low of +0.9% y/y from Sep's +1.4% y/y. The consensus is for today's Oct core PPI to ease to a new 2-1/2 year low of +1.5% y/y from Sep's +2.0% y/y
Mr. Powell will appear today before the House Budget Committee and will undoubtedly repeat yesterday's themes, although questions from House members could draw out some potentially market-moving news.
Mr. Powell yesterday confirmed that Fed policy is on hold for the time being by saying, "We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook."
The main risks noted by Mr. Powell were "sluggish growth abroad and trade developments."
The U.S. stock market on Wednesday afternoon was undercut by a Wall Street Journal report saying that the US/China trade deal has hit a snag because China is reluctant to put numerical targets for ag purchases into the text of a trade deal.
China's trade ministry says the trade war should be ended by removing tariffs.
The methodology used in deciding tariffs.
Hong Kong remains in a state of revolution.
President Trump yesterday said that he has been fully briefed and will decide soon on whether to impose tariffs on U.S. auto imports.
European automakers such as Volkswagen and Daimler have agreed to shift global production to American suppliers to stave off the tariff.
Europe has promised to slap retaliatory tariffs on $39 billion of U.S. goods if Mr. Trump imposes a tariff on European autos.
Germany narrowly dodges a recession.
In swaps we trust.
Libya says Russian mercenaries will drag out the war.
Fed Governor Quarles gives welcoming remarks at an Insurance conference 0430 hrs cst
PPI m/m 0.4% actual, expected 0.3% v. -0.03% prior
PPI x-food and energy m/m 0.1% actual, expected 0.2% v. -0.3% prior
PPI Final Demand y/y 1.1% actual, expected 0.9% v. 1.4% prior
PPI x-food and energy y/y 1.6% actual, expected 1.5% v. 2.0% prior
Initial Jobless Claims 225k actual, expected 215k v. 211k prior
Continuing Claims 1683k actual, expected 1683k v. 1689k prior, which was revised to 1693k
Fed Governor Clarida speaks at the Kato Institute at 0800 hrs cst
Chicago Fed President Evans (voter) speaks at a fintech congerence 0810 hrs cst
SF Fed Presidnet Daly (non voter) with opening remarks at an economic policy conference 1045 hrs cst
NY Fed President Williams (voter) at an economic policy conference 1100 hrs cst
St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) speaks in Louisville 1120 hrs cst
Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non voter) speaks at a community forum in Texas 1200 hrs cst
4-week bill auction $55b
8-week bill auction $40b
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